Credits or rather loans in Germany – a growing business or growing risks?

Before we talk about money, let’s first talk about people: the adult population in Germany has increased over the past 20 years—from around 67.5 million in 2006 to approximately 70 million in 2026. That represents a rise of about 4%.

At the same time, however, the number of new instalment loans has surged dramatically. While around 5.5 million adults had outstanding loans in 2006, by 2024 more than 10 million people were repaying one or more loans. What is more, loan volumes have also risen sharply. Germans currently hold loans totalling €236 billion. But can they actually service them?

These figures—researched using Perplexity.ai via Statista—point to a growth market that not only finances larger cars for young families or renovation projects for multi-generational households. It appears that almost every second adult will, at some point, apply for a loan—for one purpose or another. Thanks to digital application processes, it is often just a matter of a few clicks.

For banks, however, the credit boom does not come without downsides—keyword: credit application fraud. Income statements that are now submitted purely digitally can be manipulated within minutes—turning €1,789 into €2,789 net per month. Or entire documents, including bank statements, are fabricated from scratch.

As fraud schemes are currently evolving at tremendous speed—not least due to generative AI—banks would in fact need to scrutinise applications far more thoroughly before approving them. Yet traditional credit application checks are no longer sufficient given the many interdependencies—and, under competitive pressure and the promise of real-time loan approvals, they are simply too slow.

Banks must strike a balance between efficiency and security, while keeping pace with the latest developments. But if manual checks are not scalable and rigid rules are too inflexible…

…what is the solution?

It may sound blunt, but: us.
 

ICO.Fraud for banks combines state-of-the-art software-based analysis with continuous expert exchange within financial institutions. By integrating technologies such as computer vision, encryption/anonymisation, and self-learning elements (yes, often referred to as AI), ICO.Fraud detects forged documents. The software delivers rapid, actionable insights, helping to identify fraud cases ideally before a fraudulent loan is even paid out.

And one final question for all fraud managers, innovation leaders, and bank executives: how are you protecting your institution—and your customers—against the next wave of fraud?

Image: prompted using media.io/Nano Banana Pro